Paul Destroys Peden

Ron Paul destroyed Texas Congressional District 14 challenger Chris Peden, by about two votes to one last night. Paul will be unchallenged by a Democrat in November, so Paul will have two more years to be a voice of liberty and reason in the House. With his seat secure, I'm not sure where Paul goes from here, but there are still rumors of a possible Third Party Run.

In other news McCain acquired the necessary delegates to clinch the GOP nomination, and Mike Huckabee started making plans for Election '12.

Hillary won both the Texas and Ohio primaries to keep the Democrat Party nomination up for grabs. Obama looks poised to win the Texas Caucases though, which account for a third of the available delegates in that state. With the proportional distribution of delegates and the remaining primaries, it is unlikely that either Clinton or Obama will clinch the nomination, and the Superdelegates (Strange visitors from another planet?) will be the deciding factor. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. It could come down to a fight in Denver at the Democratic National Convention.

Ron Paul: No 3rd Party Run, and With Good Reason

I was always sceptical of Ron Paul's denials of his intent to run as a third party or independent candidate, and felt he was planning for that contingency once any GOP candidate aquired the necessary delegates to get the nomination. It seemed like the natural progression, once there was absolutely zero chance for even a brokered convention.

He announced last night that he will not go third party or independent so that he can run for, and maintain his seat in the House of Representatives. This makes sense to me. He can have at least some influence in the House.

Paul has always said that his movement was about the message and not the man. Part of his intent is to change the face of the Republican Party to truly embrace the principles of limited goverment, and staying in an elected position within that party makes a lot of sense. His presidential run has built a pretty good network of active people who really believe in his message of liberty, limited government, sound money and all the rest. Hopefully those people will stay with the party, move into positions of party leadership, run for office themselves and give liberty a true voice again.

Ron Paul: 3 Delegates So Far Today!

Ron Paul made a deal to help Mike Huckabee win the West Virginia State GOP convention.
Paul was dropped after losing the first ballot(with no candidate getting 51% of the votes) Paul and McCain both threw their support to Huckabee to deny Mitt Romney the win.
In exchange for the votes that put Huckabee over the top, Paul will receive 3 of the 18 Delegates available from West Virginia.

That should bring his delegate total to 9 not counting those earned in Maine or Louisiana.

Reason Magazine's Hit and Run Blog has the details.
More Via the Lew Rockwell Blog

Ron Paul: Super Tuesday

It's been almost three months since I've posted here at Otter Disaster. Work schedule and other real life responsibilities pulled me away from any blogging at all.

I'm once again hoping to blog on something like a regular schedule, maybe a couple of times a week at least.

Today I wanted to blog about Ron Paul again, because Super Duper Tuesday is coming on February 5.

Since I last posted about the election Paul had less than stellar finishes in Iowa, Michingan, South Carolina and especially New Hampshire where expectations were high.
He had two record setting 'Money Bombs' and respectable finishes in the Nevada, Maine and Louisiana Caucuses.
Paul also weathered a scandal concerning racist and controversial comments in a Newsletter from the 90s that bore his name.
He was the top GOP fundraiser in 4th Quarter of 2007, pulling in over $20 Million dollars, helping him outlast Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, and 'America's Mayor', Rudy Giuliani.

Paul's only hope for the GOP nomination at this point is probably a brokered convention.
Romney and McCain will need to split most of the Super Tuesday states(with a few upsets by Romney), with maybe a suprise win by Huckabee somewhere, and possibly a surprise win by Paul in the Montana caucus and some California districts (where delegates are partly distributed proportionally). Those delegates need to be spread far and wide so that no clear delegate majority exists by the GOP Convention in August. With McCain surging in most polls, a brokered convention is seeming less likely all the time.

In my opinion, Paul will begin to seriously consider a third party/independent run following Super Tuesday. I think he will have to make this decision soon, for fundraising and ballot access reasons, but I think he'll do it. Paul seems dedicated to continuing the fight for the message of his campaign, and once McCain locks up the nomination, Paul will be increasingly marginalized by the media. He can drum up lots of publicity with an indy/3rd party run, and if he polls well enough, he could even find himself in some debates.

I personally hope he makes an indy/3rd party bid, because there is no way I'll vote for McCain, Romney, Clinton or Obama. If Paul doesn't continue his campaign, I'll most likely vote for the LP nominee, as I've done since 1996.

Miscellaneous Debris: Part 9

The Cleveland Okie has a nice post with an interview of Mike Shea, the son of Illuminatus! co-author Robert Shea. The interview mentions the eight appendices reported to have been removed from the original appendices of Illuminatus!, as well as the book 'Bride of Illuminatus' which was an unfinished sequel to the original to be co-written by Shea and Wilson. Oh what might have been. . .

Speaking of Illuminatus! the always cool blog, Damn Interesting, has a nice post on the Assassins.

Via Reason Magazine's Hit and Run Blog:

Will Stephen Colbert's Presidential exploration poach Ron Paul supporters?

And Radley Balko warns that Hillary Clinton may be the best option for Republicans looking to continue the foreign policy of George W. Bush.

VOTE!: Friend Suz Picks Her Candidate

Friend Suz set this email:

This quiz is pretty interesting. My top scorer wasn't who I thought it would be.

Now I have to find out who Dennis Kucinich is...

Ha!
Suz

Don't know who to vote for? Check out this quiz.

This may not be the best way to select your choice for President, but it has one strong reason in its favor: it tells you which candidates support your own opinions, whether you are a Democrat or Republican. No political message here except your own. Of course, Presidential candidates have been known to change their minds after they win elections!

The following is an interesting exercise.... You answer a few questions then click the "find your candidate button" and the program selects the candidate who's position on the issues is most like your own... You may be surprised at what you find...Click the link below....

http://www.wqad.com/Global/link.asp?L=259460

So I take the quiz and my shocking result was this(my Blogger template doesn't really parse the code for this):

	Sam Brownback Score: 38	Agree Iraq Taxes Stem-Cell Research Health Care Social Security Line-Item Veto Energy Death Penalty	Disagree Immigration Abortion Marriage
-- Take the Quiz! --

My response to Suz about said test:

Interesting test.

My top candidate was Sam Brownback(Score of 38) whom I've actually met and think is a pile of crap!

Ron Paul was my number 2 choice in the test(Score of 33), but far and away my candidate of choice based on lots of issues that were not addressed in the test. My bottom candidates(tied)were Hillary, Edwards and Obama. I think that there were not enough questions to be completely accurate, but I guess my guy was in the top 2 so there must be a certain level of credibility to it.

I did notice that on a lot of the questions where I agreed with Brownback were issues where I put the importance as low(Energy, Line Item, Social Security).

Also it flagged me as agreeing with Brownback on Federal funding of Stem-Cell research(against), but his reasons are generally religious, while mine have more to do with government's role in things of that nature and my belief that private industry is better at that sort of thing anyway.

Plus, I don't like the idea of government essentially picking and choosing what research is valid or important, by granting or not granting funding. I have similar feelings about alternative energy research, but as a matter of national security(and possibly keeping us out of oil wars in the future) I feel energy policy is more in line with the responsibilities of government(general welfare and common defense from the Preamble of the Constitution).

Ron Paul Continues to Surprise: Q3 Fundraising

Representative Ron Paul, of Texas, continues to surprise his critics.
He raised $5.08 Million in the 3rd quarter of 2007. That amount nearly doubles his 2nd quarter take. Increased fundraising means a continued campaign and it also means growing support.

Paul remains a long shot contender for the White House, but he still has more money in the bank than "top tier" candidate John McCain(for the second quarter in a row no less).

With the amount of cash he has available he can continue to campaign, staying in the debates and frustrating the hell out of all of his critics. In debate after debate he is the only GOP candidate that truly stands out from the status quo supporting field.

Increased fundraising also means other people(and the press) will pay more attention to his campaign and the message it brings.

Reason Magazine's Hit and Run Blog has a really good roundup of Paul's Q3 fundraising success and what it means for his campaign:

The week's politics including fundraising news for both the Dems and the GOP.

Reactions to Paul's success.

The Five Million Dollar Man.

Ron Paul: No Third Party Run

Via Hit and Run:

The Deseret Morning News reports that in a speech at a Utah fundraiser, Ron Paul reiterated that he will not make a third party bid for the presidency if he does not get the GOP Nomination.

I'll just have to write his name in, I guess.

Glenn Beck Doesn't Understand Libertarianism, and Should Shut Up About It

Glenn Beck often talks about the 'fact' that he is a "libertarian at heart," but he is not. Today he said he, "wants to be a libertarian," but he does not. These statements come from someone who doesn't really understand the libertarian position.

He was going off about Ron Paul's debate performance, and he's a harsh critic of Paul's. Beck doesn't like Paul's approach to foreign policy and the war in Iraq, and that is fine. He's entitled to be critical of Paul, certainly, but he should really be a more informed critic when it comes to Paul's libertarianism.

Beck claimed Ron Paul said that he (Paul) would eliminate the CIA, FBI and the IRS. The debate moderator said those things of Paul. That doesn't mean Paul has never suggested eliminating them(he has said he'd like to eliminate the IRS, and has talked about reforming the CIA, I've never heard him talk about the FBI), but it was the moderator and not Paul saying them at the debate last night. Beck inaccurately put those words in Paul's mouth last night.

To Beck's credit he did say it was inappropriate for Giuliani to audibly laugh during Paul's responses, and I agree. I wasn't sure it was Giuliani, but whoever it was showed a real lack of manners and decorum.

After his discussion of the debate he went into his (oft repeated) shtick about how he likes libertarianism, considers himself a libertarian 'at heart, and 'wants' to be one, but just can't because the country lacks the morality(?). I guess he believes that 'morality' can be successfully dictated and enforced by government action (see Prohibition, Prostitution, the War on Drugs, and on and on).

His arguments tend to lean in the direction that all libertarians are essentially anarchists, and that if they were in charge(an oxymoron?) we'd have heroin addicts littering the streets (a very accurate paraphrase from a month or so ago). Beck is essentially, and commendably a free market conservative with Neo-Con leanings (especially when it comes to foreign policy and Israel), who, for some reason likes to associate himself with the term libertarian.

He obviously doesn't even remotely understand the arguments against the War on Drugs, or the idea that decriminalization and privatized treatment via charities, churches and other private sector solutions would probably take more heroin users off the streets than current government run solutions.

If he really 'wants' to be libertarian, then he should try to understand the libertarian position better, so he doesn't sound like such an ass when he talks about it.

Ron Paul Shows Some Fire: New Hampshire Debate Last Night

Ron Paul finally showed some real fire in his belly in last night's New Hampshire GOP debate. It was nice to see him showing some passion about his war position, and reiterating that the American people are not at fault over 9-11 and the Iraq war, but that those problems are the fault of bad and/or failed governmental policy.

Ron Paul continues to be a refreshing voice as the only anti-war Republican, while the rest of the candidates seem to be fighting over the degree to which the 'surge' is, or is not working, but essentially all hold the same position: Let's Stay in Iraq.

He also seems to be losing patience with accusations, suggestions, and not so veiled jabs that he is more or less an al-Qaeda sympathizer. He is responding very passionately to these jabs, and making the point that an administration with tunnel vision, and a crappy foreign policy is to blame and not Joe Six-pack, average American.

YouTube user ScanningTheWaves, edited together Mr. Paul's responses and exchanges into a single clip (try not to pay attention to the lip sync problem):



Someone with an open mic laughed audibly a number of times at Paul, which I found rather curious.

Paul seemed to have some good support for his positions in the crowd and got some good applause and cheers. The crowd as a whole seemed pretty passionate, and he got a fair share of boos and jeers as well.

Reason Magazine's David Weigel has a rundown of the debate as it happened last night.

Hugh Hewitt Interviews Ron Paul After TX Straw Poll

Following last weekend's Texas Straw Poll (Paul finished 3rd) he was interviewed by Neo-Con Talk Radio Host Hugh Hewitt.

I used to listen to Hewitt regularly, but over time, found him to be a Hannity-style apologist for all things Republican Party. He's a Bush guy, and from most reports is now firmly in the Mitt Romney camp. Hewitt was also a big supporter of the swiftboaters against John Kerry (I found the behavior of both sides in that brou-ha-ha equally repugnant), and railed against Kerry for his flip-flopping. One of the main criticisms of Romney is how he has flipped on numerous issues to position himself farther on the right.

Just wanted to give you a little background on the man with the mic. All of the above considered, he's reasonably fair with Ron Paul in this interview:



Hat tip to Reason's Hit and Run.

Ron Paul: Strippers Like Liberty Too!

To the best of my knowledge this post on a blog called GordonUnleashed was inspired by this post at the Hustle and Cash Flow Blog. Now everyone is talking about Strippers For Ron Paul.

LadyLiberty, a former stripper (real name Michelle Shinghal) appeared on MSNBC's Tucker Carlson show to discuss the issue:



I always thought Carlson was a Bushie tool, but he seems to have libertarian leanings and he seems to be a fan of Dr. Paul. Good to know, maybe his brain started functioning better since ditching the bow ties.

Liberty and the ideas of limited government have broad appeal all over the map, and one of the reasons I like Ron Paul so much is the diverse crowd he pulls together. Strippers, gold bugs, conspiracy nuts, right to lifers, and other assorted political creatures with liberty on their minds. Talk about a uniter(not a divider), Ron Paul is your guy.

Ron Paul: More on the Straw Poll

Well, this article at Wired.com presents a more optimistic view of Paul's finish in the Ames Straw Poll. Via a link in the Wired story is this blog entry listing "winners and losers".

Ron himself is upbeat about the finish, and comparing the campaign to the Aesop fable of the Tortoise and the Hare. Read his comments here.

Ron Paul Finishes 5th in Iowa

Ron Paul finished in 5th place in the Ames Iowa Straw Poll. A disappointing finish. I had hoped for at least a top 3 finish.
Everybody knew that Romney would win, with Giuliani and McCain not participating. The surprise of the day was the 2nd place finish of Mike Huckabee from Arkansas with an impressive 18% of the votes cast. I guess Huckabee is now the top candidate of the second tier. Brownback did pretty well too. Here are the results for all involved:

Mitt Romney: 4,516 / 31.5%

Mike Huckabee: 2,587 / 18.1%

Sam Brownback: 2,192 / 15.3%

Tom Tancredo: 1,961 / 13.7%

Ron Paul: 1,305 / 9.1%

Tommy Thompson: 1,039 / 7.3%

Fred Thompson: 203 / 1.4%

Rudy Giuliani: 183 / 1.3%

Duncan Hunter: 174 / 1.2%

John McCain: 101 / 1.0%

John Cox: 41 / .1%

14,302 Total Votes

26,000 Total Tickets Sold

Tommy Thompson has dropped out of the race based on the Ames results.

Here is an account of the event by Reason Magazine's David Wiegal. It sounds like the Paul supporters at the event weren't disappointed as much as I am, and it sounds like Ron Paul is still in it for the long haul. I am glad of that because he will still be able to inject his ideas into the debates, and force discussion on topics that will otherwise get short shrift from the other candidates. Sensibly ending the war in Iraq, and restoration of civil liberties at home being two issues where he flies directly in the face of everyone else.
I hope this showing doesn't finish him off in the eyes of the media, since he finished only slightly ahead of Tommy Thompson. Paul's is the only standout message the Republicans have, and as I have noted before, his nomination is certainly the only way the Republicans can get my vote. I might have to seriously start investigating the Libertarian candidates for President soon.

Ron Paul and the Iowa Straw Poll This Weekend

The Iowa Straw Poll will be held this Saturday. The Poll is described as:

a straw poll that takes place in Ames, Iowa on a Saturday in August of years in which the Republican presidential nomination is undecided (that is, in years without an incumbent Republican President). Though several different pre-Iowa Caucus straw polls take place in Iowa, the Ames Straw Poll is by far the most prominent one of them, because it draws voters from all over the state rather than just the local area, and is thus also commonly known as the Iowa Straw Poll. The Ames Straw Poll was first held in 1979.

The Poll is generally seen as a fundraising/public relations event, more than a political one, but it can show the level of continuing support a candidate can expect. Poor performance in this poll has caused candidates to drop out of the race in the past.

Ron Paul is hoping to gain some momentum going into the poll and he participated in a debate in Iowa on Monday morning (Aug. 6th) with a really good follow up appearance on Fox News. The LAist website has video of both appearances.\

This article doesn't give Paul much of a chance, but he's been surprising his critics right from the start in this campaign. Let's hope he fares well.

Ron Paul and the Letters of Marque and Reprisal

Representative Ron Paul of Texas once again schools the Executive Branch on the Constitution. Instead of waging undeclared war on nations Mr. Paul suggests the issuance of a Letter of Marque and Reprisal against named terrorists and their assets.

From Wikipedia:

A Letter of Marque and Reprisal is an official warrant or commission from a national government authorizing the designated agent to search, seize, or destroy specified assets or personnel belonging to a party which has committed some offense under the laws of nations against the assets or citizens of the issuing nation, and has usually been used to authorize private parties to raid and capture merchant shipping of an enemy nation.

This power is of course delegated specifically to the Congress and not the President, possibly explaining Mr. Bush's reluctance to ask for the use of such a tool. He doesn't really pay much attention to the enumerated powers of any given branch and assumes those powers(and some he just makes up) reside with the Executive.
This congressional power was originally used to battle piracy and other acts by individuals or groups not representing any government. Hmmmmm...sounds kinda like terrorist groups.
The Letters allowed the government to take retaliatory action without having to declare war especially in situations where there was no nation upon which to declare war.

From Wikipedia:

As with a domestic search, arrest, seizure, or death warrant, to be considered lawful it needs to have a certain degree of specificity, to ensure that the agent does not exceed his authority and the intent of the issuing authority.

The specificity clause, is probably another reason W hasn't pursued the idea of the Letters.

In October 2001, Paul introduced a bill to issue Letters of Marque against those responsible for 9/11 (it didn't pass) and has re-introduced the bill again recently.

Ron Paul has long been a champion of the Constitution as this video nicely illustrates:

Ron Paul: History Shows Low Poll Numbers Not Insurmountable.

LewRockwell.com has a story that shows how Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, Michael Dukakis, and others were polling (1%-3% range)at around this same time in their respective election cycles:

A recent Gallup poll finds Paul at the head of the so-called second-tier candidates (i.e., the candidates the establishment hasn’t anointed), though still with a ways to go. Yet Justin Ptak recently made the important point that at this stage in the election cycle, national polls reflect only name recognition, not respondents’ assessments of the candidates. Consider the statistics, drawn from the LewRockwell.com blog:

In early 1975, Jimmy Carter was polling at 1% (he went on to win the presidency).
In early 1987, Michael Dukakis was polling at 1% (he went on to win the Democratic nomination).
In early 1991, Bill Clinton was at 2% (he went on to win the presidency).
In the spring of 1999, John McCain was polling at 3% (he went on to win the New Hampshire primary).
In early 2003, Joe Lieberman was leading the field for the Democratic presidential nomination (he failed to win any primary).

So Paul is doing well and reaching more and more people. But just as interesting is the recent news that fully 50 percent of all the money donated to Republican candidates in the second quarter by employees of the United States military went to – wait for it – Ron Paul!

So while Paul is still a longshot, there is some historical evidence that it is possible to make up lot of ground before all is said and done (and maybe even get the nomination). The rest of the article discusses Paul's blowback comments concerning 9/11 and the Giuliani confrontation at the 2nd Republican Debate.

More historical perspective at the Lew Rockwell site compares the current GOP climate to that of 1964 and the campaign of Barry Goldwater. I details how Goldwater rose up with grassroots support and remade the GOP. That election had a Romney in it as well, Mitt's father, George.

This Ron Paul article started off normally enough, but veers into his astrological chart at the back end. I can't really decipher it, but it's at least a different perspective.

Ron Paul now in Third Place (Cash on Hand Edition)

I blogged about rumors of Ron Paul's surging campaign contributions last month.
With the latest round of finance reporting it turns out he is only behind Romney and Giuliani in terms of funds in the bank.
He even has more than 'front runner' John McCain. He's still $10 million behind 2nd place Romney, but for a campaign that many have said has no chance, this is pretty huge news.

Recent Ron Paul Media Appearances

Ron Paul appeared on G4 TV's Attack of the Show on June 26th. A really good interview on some diverse topics. Paul get to voice his point of view on some topics that aren't the Iraq War or the IRS.

Link to the video on Paul's Website HERE. The same video at YouTube HERE.

Ron Paul also appeared on Your World with Neil Cavuto on Fox News the same night. Look at how Cavuto tries to get Paul to say he's against all taxes, and how he tries to equate Congressman Paul with Ed and Elaine Brown. Paul repeatedly says he doesn't really know much about the case, but Cavuto keeps making the equation. Paul merely states he has no problem with civil disobedience of laws he feels are unjust. Cavuto makes numerous statements about Ron Paul's position and Paul politely corrects him throughout the interview. I've seen Cavuto's show a few times and he lobs softballs at guests he likes, and he has a habit of interrupting guests he doesn't like, as well as putting words in their mouths, then trying to move on.

Ron Paul addresses the Colbert Nation

Ron Paul finally had his visit to the Colbert Report. Good interview, drove home most of his key talking points. Very funny stuff when Colbert has him raise his hand for government programs he'd eliminate. Check it out:



Ron Paul's visit to the Daily Show HERE.