Figuring Out Trump

I was wrong about Trump's level of support plateauing, it seems.  His level of support has continued to grow, and I've watched his campaign with a certain morbid fascination. I'm trying to figure him and his campaign out. His supporters are much more diverse and their motivations much more varied than I'd guessed.  The Guardian has a revealing article featuring letters from Trump supporters, many left-leaning, and closeted. Their reasons for supporting him go the beyond the CNN/MSNBC racist/nativist narrative. Some are actually supporting him with chaos and tumult a desired result. A 'burn the village to save the village' approach. I'm certainly a fan of what his success has done to the corrupt and laughable Republican Party.

His appeal is much more broad than his critics are willing to, or want to admit.  The fact that many prefer Bernie, but Trump is their number two choice over Clinton is an amazing revelation. I've seen their two candidacies successes stemming from the same angers and frustrations with the same old party lines, inherent corruptions, etc, but two months ago, I wouldn't have drawn a Venn Diagram where there was significant overlap in their two circles.

As a libertarian, his stated positions are almost universally anathema to me, but I've certainly enjoyed watching him act as a raging bull in the GOP's neo-con china shop. He's probably more of a centrist than Cruz/Rubio or Clinton on many issues that matter a lot to me, mainly living in the pockets of Goldman Sachs and more war, more war, more war! In other words, every single candidate running is terrible, including Trump, but he really isn't worse than any of the other contenders. He's just more open about what a creep he is. That's refreshing to many people.

The latest big news in the Trump campaign over the last couple days is the reappearance of Mitt Romney in Presidential politics.  He's arrived to suggest that any and all measures should be taken to keep Trump from being the nominee of THEIR party, even if they have to force a brokered convention, and give the Presidency to Clinton. I suggested this would be the basic strategy back in December.

That Romney and company have so blatantly and desperately laid out their plan to do an end-run about the primary process is remarkable, going so far as to suggest they will modify Rule 40 (again) to stymie his nomination. The linked article is from December and suggests Cruz/Rubio as the top two contenders, and a Rule 40 change to PREVENT a floor fight at the convention with a large swath of delegates voting against the de facto nominee. The rule first gained notoriety when it was changed to prevent Ron Paul delegates from announcing their support at the 2012 convention. Now they may amend the rule to CREATE a floor fight and hopefully force a floor vote beyond the first to install anyone but Trump. Amazing. The Democrats have been far less subtle and created their 'superdelegates' a few cycles back, allowing them to tightly control their nomination process to shoehorn in their establishment candidate in any remotely close primary situation. Clinton holds a vast majority of those party insider, party elite, establishment linked delegates. Bernie was never going to get a significant number of those, he would have to absolutely crush her in every state to even be a real threat.

A brokered convention will absolutely destroy the already fractured GOP, showing utter contempt for a large part of its potential voter base. They will see their votes as stolen by a powerful elite, and the nominee as a puppet of that same elite. Those voters will leave and not return. Which is no less than it deserves.

My guess is Trump's poll numbers will spike again as a result of this coordinated attack by the exact cabal that his supporters absolutely despise.

I see Donald Trump as analogous to the 'Cool Heel' Pro Wrestling archetype that emerged in a big way in the 1990s and Mitt Romeny is his Vince McMahon. He comes out and cuts a promo on The Donald, giving him plenty of heat, and setting Trump up for a stunning rebuttal, leaving him more popular than ever.

It's A Big Club...

It's a big club and you ain't in it.

It has been interesting to see people losing their collective shit over Trump's latest, successful attempts to get attention.  “He's gone full fascist!” they cry. I've got news for you. America has been creeping toward fascism for a very long time, and fascism goes beyond just the Nazis, fascism's most extreme form. Yes, Trump speaks like a fascist. His rhetoric is racist, xenophobic, and certainly doesn't help the view that America hates Muslims. He is human garbage. On the other hand, all he CAN do right now is talk. He will NEVER be President. He is despised by the GOP establishment. They hate him as much as many of you do. Maybe more. Regardless of primary votes, rest assured, the Republican Party will lie, cheat and steal to make sure he is not their nominee.  They will install Cruz or Rubio, who by now are starting to look like reasonable centrists.  Hell, Trump may be doing them a favor.

So while Trump talks a good fascist game (and exposes a horrible undercurrent of supporters), Obama governs as a fascist. His administration continues the George Bush policies of an unstable Middle East almost as if Jr were given another couple of terms.  Obama and Hillary, as his Secretary of State helped, destabilize Syria and Libya, and created the conditions for the Islamic State to climb up from the foothold given to them by Bush. The refugee crisis out of the Middle East is directly tied to these policies as well.

Obama's recent comments about Assad in Syria seem to suggest he thinks the Bush Doctrine is pretty neat. Unilateral regime change (while creating the illusion of some sort of coalition) is still the core of American Middle East policy.  This approach guarantees chaos, violence and death for years to come. Mostly Muslim deaths.  I'm sure Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and all the other defense contractors are perfectly fine with this, as they make the hardware that gets used in these stupid, endless wars. Obama's drone policies have also been proven to contribute to radicalization, and Islamic State recruitment. This is a policy he could end today, literally with the stroke of a pen, but he does not.  Arming 'moderate rebels' is a colossally stupid move, as those rebels are anything but. It is a recipe for blowback, creating the conditions for would-be Bin Ladens, and inspiring further acts like Paris and San Bernadino.  These 'rebels' merely want to rule from the top of a mountain of skulls in Syria instead of Assad or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and they will use Western support to get there.

Obama in deed and action has killed thousands of Muslims, and will kill thousands more. Hillary, almost certainly your next President, has said we need boots on the ground in Syria, to oust Islamic State AND Assad, and with no clue as to what happens next. (Hint: Look at Iraq and Afghanistan, and millions more dead) Maybe none of that matters as long as the prices of Defense Stocks stays high, and those companies keep pumping out Predator Drones and Hellfire Missiles, lining the pockets of their shareholders.

Fascism has important economic distinctions as well.  Big Banks, Auto Companies, and Airlines all managed to socialize their losses and privatize their profits when they were deemed 'too big to fail'. This is essentially fascist economics. Bush started it, Obama continued it with nary a hiccup.  Bill Clinton used to talk about 'Third Way' economics, the mix of socialism and capitalism.  Also referred to as ‘mixed economies’. GW Bush and Obama both love the phrase  public-private partnership which is the same mentality.  They both loved to subsidize their pet, politically connected companies, and when the money disappears from Enron, Halliburton, Solyndra, ad nauseum the taxpayer gets robbed, and the executives get golden parachutes.  Obamacare isn't socialist as much as lefties and righties would both love it to be. It is fascist.  It forces the consumer to buy, not state or government insurance, but coverage from private companies. Crony capitalism to its very core. Fascist.

Fascism also requires some sort of nationalist fervor.  Try watching or attending a sporting event some time and see the worship of the police and military on constant display. The U.S. is approaching 20 Trillion dollars in debt, and we have the military paying the NFL $5 million dollars to 'honor' them. Propaganda, and you paid for it. 'Thank you for your service,' is the robotic mantra spoken to anyone wearing a uniform and police and soldiers are held up as above criticism by many.  Meanwhile drone operators refer to children as 'Fun-Sized Terrorists' right before incinerating them and cops execute unarmed people in the street and get paid vacation for their trouble. If there is a camera rolling they may have to take the time off unpaid. They do this with surplus military gear, handed down by the Feds.  Police look more like soldiers now, than 'peace officers', and see themselves warriors...War on Drugs, War on Crime and everyone is suspect.  The militarization of police really took off in earnest in the early 90s under Bush the First and Bill Clinton. More creeping fascism.  Plus, near total surveillance by the NSA and CIA of domestic communication. No warrant, this is War dammit!

Fascism never looks the same from implementation to implementation. Hitler's fascism was it's most virulent form, Mussolini's a little less so. Spanish and South American fascism each had their own distinct attributes. The fascinating thing about the American Brand is how the left and right prop up the different components. The Militarism comes from the conservative/center right while the central planning is largely driven by the center left. The American flavor is what I, and others, have called Soft Fascism. It is centrist, but still Authoritarian. It has learned the lessons of the more virulent strains. It maintains elections among a small, select group while trumpeting our choices. Two parties who behave as one in almost all regards (economic central planning, foreign policy, corruption) and create the appearance of a vast gulf of differences (guns, abortion and other wedge issues at the edges of policy). They nudge the needle almost imperceptibly one way or the other on the wedge issues, and stoke the passions of those most passionate believers in those areas while governing everywhere else with almost seamless continuity (War, Empire, Cronyism, making themselves rich at your expense). Meanwhile the keep anyone with any real ideas of change on the fringes or shut them out of the process entirely. See ballot access laws designed to discourage third parties.

 “The argument that the two parties should represent opposed ideals and policies, one, perhaps, of the Right and the other of the Left, is a foolish idea acceptable only to doctrinaire and academic thinkers. Instead, the two parties should be almost identical, so that the American people can ‘throw the rascals out’ at any election without leading to any profound or extensive shifts in policy” 

- Caroll Quigley from his book Tragedy and Hope. 

Bill Clinton was a student of Quigley's at Georgetown, spoke highly of Quigley, considered him a mentor and Bill was almost the platonic ideal of the quote. Remember he bombed the shit out of Iraq too. Not too mention his adventures in the Balkans.

Trump won't win, in fact he won't even get the nomination. Neither will Bernie Sanders for that matter. The Democrats want Hillary, and that's who they'll give you, primaries be damned.  You'll get Hillary vs. Cruz or Rubio, with Hillary the winner barring a complete implosion or new scandal. She'll continue the Empire, just as GH Bush, her husband, Bush 41, and Obama have done. She is the Goldman Sachs candidate after all.

George Carlin laid it out a long time ago:

The Inevitable Meeting of Death and Taxes

They say only sure things in life are Death and Taxes.

Ham fisted, like all political cartoons, to be sure. I'm just stretching my drawing muscles a bit while working on my new ongoing strip to be announced soon...

Dingy #12: Politics as Usual

A lady who knows how to get things done...

Dingy #6: 80-88

Otter Disaster #29 - 2009: See You...(My Year in Review in 4 Panels)

Human Action by von Mises in Comic Form

Ludwig von Mises’s Human Action adapted in comics form...saving for future reference.

via Lew Rockwell Blog

Paul Destroys Peden

Ron Paul destroyed Texas Congressional District 14 challenger Chris Peden, by about two votes to one last night. Paul will be unchallenged by a Democrat in November, so Paul will have two more years to be a voice of liberty and reason in the House. With his seat secure, I'm not sure where Paul goes from here, but there are still rumors of a possible Third Party Run.

In other news McCain acquired the necessary delegates to clinch the GOP nomination, and Mike Huckabee started making plans for Election '12.

Hillary won both the Texas and Ohio primaries to keep the Democrat Party nomination up for grabs. Obama looks poised to win the Texas Caucases though, which account for a third of the available delegates in that state. With the proportional distribution of delegates and the remaining primaries, it is unlikely that either Clinton or Obama will clinch the nomination, and the Superdelegates (Strange visitors from another planet?) will be the deciding factor. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. It could come down to a fight in Denver at the Democratic National Convention.

Ron Paul: No 3rd Party Run, and With Good Reason

I was always sceptical of Ron Paul's denials of his intent to run as a third party or independent candidate, and felt he was planning for that contingency once any GOP candidate aquired the necessary delegates to get the nomination. It seemed like the natural progression, once there was absolutely zero chance for even a brokered convention.

He announced last night that he will not go third party or independent so that he can run for, and maintain his seat in the House of Representatives. This makes sense to me. He can have at least some influence in the House.

Paul has always said that his movement was about the message and not the man. Part of his intent is to change the face of the Republican Party to truly embrace the principles of limited goverment, and staying in an elected position within that party makes a lot of sense. His presidential run has built a pretty good network of active people who really believe in his message of liberty, limited government, sound money and all the rest. Hopefully those people will stay with the party, move into positions of party leadership, run for office themselves and give liberty a true voice again.

Ron Paul: 3 Delegates So Far Today!

Ron Paul made a deal to help Mike Huckabee win the West Virginia State GOP convention.
Paul was dropped after losing the first ballot(with no candidate getting 51% of the votes) Paul and McCain both threw their support to Huckabee to deny Mitt Romney the win.
In exchange for the votes that put Huckabee over the top, Paul will receive 3 of the 18 Delegates available from West Virginia.

That should bring his delegate total to 9 not counting those earned in Maine or Louisiana.

Reason Magazine's Hit and Run Blog has the details.
More Via the Lew Rockwell Blog

Ron Paul: Super Tuesday

It's been almost three months since I've posted here at Otter Disaster. Work schedule and other real life responsibilities pulled me away from any blogging at all.

I'm once again hoping to blog on something like a regular schedule, maybe a couple of times a week at least.

Today I wanted to blog about Ron Paul again, because Super Duper Tuesday is coming on February 5.

Since I last posted about the election Paul had less than stellar finishes in Iowa, Michingan, South Carolina and especially New Hampshire where expectations were high.
He had two record setting 'Money Bombs' and respectable finishes in the Nevada, Maine and Louisiana Caucuses.
Paul also weathered a scandal concerning racist and controversial comments in a Newsletter from the 90s that bore his name.
He was the top GOP fundraiser in 4th Quarter of 2007, pulling in over $20 Million dollars, helping him outlast Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, and 'America's Mayor', Rudy Giuliani.

Paul's only hope for the GOP nomination at this point is probably a brokered convention.
Romney and McCain will need to split most of the Super Tuesday states(with a few upsets by Romney), with maybe a suprise win by Huckabee somewhere, and possibly a surprise win by Paul in the Montana caucus and some California districts (where delegates are partly distributed proportionally). Those delegates need to be spread far and wide so that no clear delegate majority exists by the GOP Convention in August. With McCain surging in most polls, a brokered convention is seeming less likely all the time.

In my opinion, Paul will begin to seriously consider a third party/independent run following Super Tuesday. I think he will have to make this decision soon, for fundraising and ballot access reasons, but I think he'll do it. Paul seems dedicated to continuing the fight for the message of his campaign, and once McCain locks up the nomination, Paul will be increasingly marginalized by the media. He can drum up lots of publicity with an indy/3rd party run, and if he polls well enough, he could even find himself in some debates.

I personally hope he makes an indy/3rd party bid, because there is no way I'll vote for McCain, Romney, Clinton or Obama. If Paul doesn't continue his campaign, I'll most likely vote for the LP nominee, as I've done since 1996.

Miscellaneous Debris: Part 9

The Cleveland Okie has a nice post with an interview of Mike Shea, the son of Illuminatus! co-author Robert Shea. The interview mentions the eight appendices reported to have been removed from the original appendices of Illuminatus!, as well as the book 'Bride of Illuminatus' which was an unfinished sequel to the original to be co-written by Shea and Wilson. Oh what might have been. . .

Speaking of Illuminatus! the always cool blog, Damn Interesting, has a nice post on the Assassins.

Via Reason Magazine's Hit and Run Blog:

Will Stephen Colbert's Presidential exploration poach Ron Paul supporters?

And Radley Balko warns that Hillary Clinton may be the best option for Republicans looking to continue the foreign policy of George W. Bush.

VOTE!: Friend Suz Picks Her Candidate

Friend Suz set this email:

This quiz is pretty interesting. My top scorer wasn't who I thought it would be.

Now I have to find out who Dennis Kucinich is...

Ha!
Suz

Don't know who to vote for? Check out this quiz.

This may not be the best way to select your choice for President, but it has one strong reason in its favor: it tells you which candidates support your own opinions, whether you are a Democrat or Republican. No political message here except your own. Of course, Presidential candidates have been known to change their minds after they win elections!

The following is an interesting exercise.... You answer a few questions then click the "find your candidate button" and the program selects the candidate who's position on the issues is most like your own... You may be surprised at what you find...Click the link below....

http://www.wqad.com/Global/link.asp?L=259460

So I take the quiz and my shocking result was this(my Blogger template doesn't really parse the code for this):

	Sam Brownback Score: 38	Agree Iraq Taxes Stem-Cell Research Health Care Social Security Line-Item Veto Energy Death Penalty	Disagree Immigration Abortion Marriage
-- Take the Quiz! --

My response to Suz about said test:

Interesting test.

My top candidate was Sam Brownback(Score of 38) whom I've actually met and think is a pile of crap!

Ron Paul was my number 2 choice in the test(Score of 33), but far and away my candidate of choice based on lots of issues that were not addressed in the test. My bottom candidates(tied)were Hillary, Edwards and Obama. I think that there were not enough questions to be completely accurate, but I guess my guy was in the top 2 so there must be a certain level of credibility to it.

I did notice that on a lot of the questions where I agreed with Brownback were issues where I put the importance as low(Energy, Line Item, Social Security).

Also it flagged me as agreeing with Brownback on Federal funding of Stem-Cell research(against), but his reasons are generally religious, while mine have more to do with government's role in things of that nature and my belief that private industry is better at that sort of thing anyway.

Plus, I don't like the idea of government essentially picking and choosing what research is valid or important, by granting or not granting funding. I have similar feelings about alternative energy research, but as a matter of national security(and possibly keeping us out of oil wars in the future) I feel energy policy is more in line with the responsibilities of government(general welfare and common defense from the Preamble of the Constitution).

Ron Paul Continues to Surprise: Q3 Fundraising

Representative Ron Paul, of Texas, continues to surprise his critics.
He raised $5.08 Million in the 3rd quarter of 2007. That amount nearly doubles his 2nd quarter take. Increased fundraising means a continued campaign and it also means growing support.

Paul remains a long shot contender for the White House, but he still has more money in the bank than "top tier" candidate John McCain(for the second quarter in a row no less).

With the amount of cash he has available he can continue to campaign, staying in the debates and frustrating the hell out of all of his critics. In debate after debate he is the only GOP candidate that truly stands out from the status quo supporting field.

Increased fundraising also means other people(and the press) will pay more attention to his campaign and the message it brings.

Reason Magazine's Hit and Run Blog has a really good roundup of Paul's Q3 fundraising success and what it means for his campaign:

The week's politics including fundraising news for both the Dems and the GOP.

Reactions to Paul's success.

The Five Million Dollar Man.

Ron Paul: No Third Party Run

Via Hit and Run:

The Deseret Morning News reports that in a speech at a Utah fundraiser, Ron Paul reiterated that he will not make a third party bid for the presidency if he does not get the GOP Nomination.

I'll just have to write his name in, I guess.

Glenn Beck Doesn't Understand Libertarianism, and Should Shut Up About It

Glenn Beck often talks about the 'fact' that he is a "libertarian at heart," but he is not. Today he said he, "wants to be a libertarian," but he does not. These statements come from someone who doesn't really understand the libertarian position.

He was going off about Ron Paul's debate performance, and he's a harsh critic of Paul's. Beck doesn't like Paul's approach to foreign policy and the war in Iraq, and that is fine. He's entitled to be critical of Paul, certainly, but he should really be a more informed critic when it comes to Paul's libertarianism.

Beck claimed Ron Paul said that he (Paul) would eliminate the CIA, FBI and the IRS. The debate moderator said those things of Paul. That doesn't mean Paul has never suggested eliminating them(he has said he'd like to eliminate the IRS, and has talked about reforming the CIA, I've never heard him talk about the FBI), but it was the moderator and not Paul saying them at the debate last night. Beck inaccurately put those words in Paul's mouth last night.

To Beck's credit he did say it was inappropriate for Giuliani to audibly laugh during Paul's responses, and I agree. I wasn't sure it was Giuliani, but whoever it was showed a real lack of manners and decorum.

After his discussion of the debate he went into his (oft repeated) shtick about how he likes libertarianism, considers himself a libertarian 'at heart, and 'wants' to be one, but just can't because the country lacks the morality(?). I guess he believes that 'morality' can be successfully dictated and enforced by government action (see Prohibition, Prostitution, the War on Drugs, and on and on).

His arguments tend to lean in the direction that all libertarians are essentially anarchists, and that if they were in charge(an oxymoron?) we'd have heroin addicts littering the streets (a very accurate paraphrase from a month or so ago). Beck is essentially, and commendably a free market conservative with Neo-Con leanings (especially when it comes to foreign policy and Israel), who, for some reason likes to associate himself with the term libertarian.

He obviously doesn't even remotely understand the arguments against the War on Drugs, or the idea that decriminalization and privatized treatment via charities, churches and other private sector solutions would probably take more heroin users off the streets than current government run solutions.

If he really 'wants' to be libertarian, then he should try to understand the libertarian position better, so he doesn't sound like such an ass when he talks about it.

Ron Paul Shows Some Fire: New Hampshire Debate Last Night

Ron Paul finally showed some real fire in his belly in last night's New Hampshire GOP debate. It was nice to see him showing some passion about his war position, and reiterating that the American people are not at fault over 9-11 and the Iraq war, but that those problems are the fault of bad and/or failed governmental policy.

Ron Paul continues to be a refreshing voice as the only anti-war Republican, while the rest of the candidates seem to be fighting over the degree to which the 'surge' is, or is not working, but essentially all hold the same position: Let's Stay in Iraq.

He also seems to be losing patience with accusations, suggestions, and not so veiled jabs that he is more or less an al-Qaeda sympathizer. He is responding very passionately to these jabs, and making the point that an administration with tunnel vision, and a crappy foreign policy is to blame and not Joe Six-pack, average American.

YouTube user ScanningTheWaves, edited together Mr. Paul's responses and exchanges into a single clip (try not to pay attention to the lip sync problem):



Someone with an open mic laughed audibly a number of times at Paul, which I found rather curious.

Paul seemed to have some good support for his positions in the crowd and got some good applause and cheers. The crowd as a whole seemed pretty passionate, and he got a fair share of boos and jeers as well.

Reason Magazine's David Weigel has a rundown of the debate as it happened last night.

Hugh Hewitt Interviews Ron Paul After TX Straw Poll

Following last weekend's Texas Straw Poll (Paul finished 3rd) he was interviewed by Neo-Con Talk Radio Host Hugh Hewitt.

I used to listen to Hewitt regularly, but over time, found him to be a Hannity-style apologist for all things Republican Party. He's a Bush guy, and from most reports is now firmly in the Mitt Romney camp. Hewitt was also a big supporter of the swiftboaters against John Kerry (I found the behavior of both sides in that brou-ha-ha equally repugnant), and railed against Kerry for his flip-flopping. One of the main criticisms of Romney is how he has flipped on numerous issues to position himself farther on the right.

Just wanted to give you a little background on the man with the mic. All of the above considered, he's reasonably fair with Ron Paul in this interview:



Hat tip to Reason's Hit and Run.

Ron Paul: Strippers Like Liberty Too!

To the best of my knowledge this post on a blog called GordonUnleashed was inspired by this post at the Hustle and Cash Flow Blog. Now everyone is talking about Strippers For Ron Paul.

LadyLiberty, a former stripper (real name Michelle Shinghal) appeared on MSNBC's Tucker Carlson show to discuss the issue:



I always thought Carlson was a Bushie tool, but he seems to have libertarian leanings and he seems to be a fan of Dr. Paul. Good to know, maybe his brain started functioning better since ditching the bow ties.

Liberty and the ideas of limited government have broad appeal all over the map, and one of the reasons I like Ron Paul so much is the diverse crowd he pulls together. Strippers, gold bugs, conspiracy nuts, right to lifers, and other assorted political creatures with liberty on their minds. Talk about a uniter(not a divider), Ron Paul is your guy.

Ron Paul: More on the Straw Poll

Well, this article at Wired.com presents a more optimistic view of Paul's finish in the Ames Straw Poll. Via a link in the Wired story is this blog entry listing "winners and losers".

Ron himself is upbeat about the finish, and comparing the campaign to the Aesop fable of the Tortoise and the Hare. Read his comments here.