Ron Paul: Super Tuesday

It's been almost three months since I've posted here at Otter Disaster. Work schedule and other real life responsibilities pulled me away from any blogging at all.

I'm once again hoping to blog on something like a regular schedule, maybe a couple of times a week at least.

Today I wanted to blog about Ron Paul again, because Super Duper Tuesday is coming on February 5.

Since I last posted about the election Paul had less than stellar finishes in Iowa, Michingan, South Carolina and especially New Hampshire where expectations were high.
He had two record setting 'Money Bombs' and respectable finishes in the Nevada, Maine and Louisiana Caucuses.
Paul also weathered a scandal concerning racist and controversial comments in a Newsletter from the 90s that bore his name.
He was the top GOP fundraiser in 4th Quarter of 2007, pulling in over $20 Million dollars, helping him outlast Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, and 'America's Mayor', Rudy Giuliani.

Paul's only hope for the GOP nomination at this point is probably a brokered convention.
Romney and McCain will need to split most of the Super Tuesday states(with a few upsets by Romney), with maybe a suprise win by Huckabee somewhere, and possibly a surprise win by Paul in the Montana caucus and some California districts (where delegates are partly distributed proportionally). Those delegates need to be spread far and wide so that no clear delegate majority exists by the GOP Convention in August. With McCain surging in most polls, a brokered convention is seeming less likely all the time.

In my opinion, Paul will begin to seriously consider a third party/independent run following Super Tuesday. I think he will have to make this decision soon, for fundraising and ballot access reasons, but I think he'll do it. Paul seems dedicated to continuing the fight for the message of his campaign, and once McCain locks up the nomination, Paul will be increasingly marginalized by the media. He can drum up lots of publicity with an indy/3rd party run, and if he polls well enough, he could even find himself in some debates.

I personally hope he makes an indy/3rd party bid, because there is no way I'll vote for McCain, Romney, Clinton or Obama. If Paul doesn't continue his campaign, I'll most likely vote for the LP nominee, as I've done since 1996.